Objective: Conjunction Assessment (Probability of Collision Prediction)
The Need: Space is now a multinational, commercial territory with weak governance. To keep our space assets safe from active and passive threats, trustworthy, actionable simulations are necessary. Here is a scenario in which lack of decision-quality sims is disastrous:
i. Orbital simulations predict high collision probability between a satellite and cataloged debris item;
ii. Satellite operator decides to change orbit based on threat forecast;
iii. However, the forecasting platform did not have appropriate error control mechanisms to accurately characterize the level of risk posed to the satellite in time;
iv. The orbit change consumed fuel, and possibly, put satellite on collision course with said debris.
v. The actual collision risk to satellite in its original orbit was not high enough to warrant an orbit change.